Beyond the Headline: Inside Omniki's Webinar on Middle East Public Opinion

14.10.2026

Dr. M. Zulfikar Rakhmat

Fahmi Salsabila (S.S., M.Si.)

Adisti Sawitri

Dwiputri Sutanto

Omniki.Survey

Dr. Zulfikar framed it in economic terms: the confrontation between the United States and Iran has hit the Strait of Hormuz, and through it the daily economy of Indonesians, especially energy. In a more globalised world, he noted, what once seemed far away now lands at home.

Adisti pointed to the human side. The conflict that began in Gaza has spread to countries Indonesians have long seen as safe, including Saudi Arabia, where many travel for Hajj and Umrah. For Indonesia, he added, the most pressing concern is fuel security rather than the direct terror felt in the region.

For The Jakarta Post, an English-language outlet that serves as a reference for expatriates and embassies in Indonesia, the Middle East is a daily beat. Breaking news runs around the clock on the website and social media; depth comes from analysis and opinion pieces by academics and think tanks, including contributors from CELIOS and ISMES.

Surveys, Adisti explained, do something interviews cannot: instead of collecting voices person by person, they show the accumulated mainstream view. That is why The Jakarta Post routinely reports survey research, including regular coverage of how ASEAN citizens see ASEAN, and why Omniki's study was useful: it captures grassroots sentiment, not only government positions, in the conflict zone and its neighbours.

Dwiputri presented findings from Omniki's MENA 2026 study, comparing Armenia, Oman and the UAE on two dimensions: how closely people follow the conflict, and where they get their information.

• 57.4% of respondents in Armenia leaned towards Iran, a clear majority; in Oman and the UAE, many chose a neutral position, siding with neither party
• 38.5% → 20.7%: in Oman, the share leaning towards Iran falls from those who follow the conflict very closely to those who do not follow it at all
• 12.9% → 34.7%: over the same range, uncertainty nearly triples
• 51.9% of Omani respondents who rely on official government statements lean towards Iran, the highest of any source; television viewers show the highest uncertainty, at 22.6%

Dr. Zulfikar summed up the pattern in three words: less news, less sure. Those who follow the news are more confident in their views than those who don't. Dwiputri added a caveat for anyone reading the numbers: the data shows a correlation, and establishing cause and effect will need a more detailed follow-up study.

For Adisti, the most striking result was the distance between governments and their publics. In Oman, the state's stance is neutral, yet grassroots sentiment tilts towards Iran; in several countries surveyed, governments are close to the US while their citizens lean the other way. Part of the explanation, she suggested, is that people no longer rely on mainstream media: official channels can now be followed directly on social media and YouTube, so information arrives faster, and publics are becoming more critical and more anxious.

Dr. Zulfikar placed Indonesia closest to the UAE: reluctant to pick sides, in line with its free and active foreign policy. But he also noted a blind spot: while the Palestinian cause feels close to Indonesians, few understand the wider context of who the actors are and why the conflicts unfold as they do.

The same disconnect, the panel agreed, exists in Indonesia. Speakers pointed to the decision to join the Board of Peace and the plan to send troops as choices that were poorly communicated to the public, which, according to CELIOS's surveys, would rather see Indonesia send humanitarian aid.

Dr. Zulfikar tied this back to Omniki's data: only 6.2% of Omanis who get their news from official statements are unsure, compared with 22.6% of television viewers. When governments explain their decisions clearly and early, people are more supportive; when they don't, opposition follows. Adisti described the media's role as capturing that gap, reporting both the government's position and the groups who disagree, and called for open platforms where government, academia and media can listen to each other.

Asked by an audience member how their institutions put data to work, the panelists shared concrete examples:

• Public diplomacy — ISMES writes for national media, draws on data for its advocacy and uses public opinion as a diplomacy tool, giving input on policy related to the Middle East and Indonesia's interests as the country with the largest Muslim population in the world
• Input before, not after — CELIOS uses fast survey data to advise government before decisions are made, rather than months later, and shares its findings in meetings with embassies
• Real choices, not yes/no — asked whether they want free meals (MBG), people say yes; offered cash, MBG or something else, CELIOS respondents preferred cash
• Tracking undecided voters — during Indonesia's 2024 presidential election, Omniki monitored candidate support and undecided voters, helping a client shape its business and campaign strategy

Fahmi closed the policy discussion with a simple point: with organisations such as Omniki.Survey, NU, Muhammadiyah, ISMES and CELIOS feeding evidence into the debate, the government will be wiser when it listens. Civil society, he argued, deserves its portion of that attention, grounded in research and surveys rather than assumption.

Stay in the Loop

This conversation is part of Omniki's ongoing work on how public opinion forms, and shifts, across Indonesia and the Middle East. Want an early heads-up on our next session?

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